Canada: 3 BC NDP candidates withdraw

It seems the NDP is having trouble with its candidates in British Columbia. In the past week three NDP candidates in the ridings of West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast, Vancouver-Quadra and, Saanich-Gulf Islands. The first candidate Dana Larsen dropped out of the race last week due to being in Pot TV video where he was on LSD and was doing marijuana. Mr. Larsen though now a member of the NDP was the cofounder of the BC Marijuana party. The second candidate Kirk Tousaw dropped out of the race two days later also for being seen in a video smoking marijuana. Marc Emery leader of the Marijuana Party has come out and stated that the NDP and the Marijuana Party made an agreement, which Jack Layton denies.

The third candidate who dropped out of the race this week has a very different story. Julian West candidate for Saanich-Gulf Islands has now dropped out of the race over allegations that he had stood naked in front of a group of 14 to 17 year old girls while aroused at an environmental retreat in 1996. He was formerly a Green Party candidate and had been removed from the party. Now running for the NDP the allegations have come up again resulting in him dropping out of the race. Though, West dropped out too late, so his name will still be on the ballot and may still garner quite a number of votes.

Canada: Polling and the elections

I used to work on doing polling so, I'm always interested in looking at polls especially when it comes to our election season. Those of us who work in politics put a lot of stock in polling. However, those who have also worked in polling and follow them closely see how inaccurate they are. Below is an example of three different polling firms from the same day from Nodice.ca:


Within the same day the range of the Bloq is 7-8%, Conservatives 36-39%, Green 6-12%, Liberal 24-30% and, NDP 16-18%. Though we get rough estimates in cases such as the Greens and Liberals there are large margins of discrepancy.

The methods of polling are also generally inaccurate. Depending on the poll the question of "Will you vote on October 14th?" isn't asked. The questions asked are usually along the lines of "If the election were today which party would you vote for?" Instead of "Who will you be voting for October 14th?" and allow for undecided voters.

Another major factor is, that most polling uses only home phones. This usually biases questions towards older homeowners as many youth use cell phones instead of a home phone. How they decide on who answer the questions can also skew the survey. Homes of one adult will always be chosen and, where there are multiple people in the home they may not be in political agreement.

Polling is quite unreliable and should be understood as such. I'm not saying do away with them completely, but be aware of the inaccuracies within them.

Canada: Let the Greens in Already..

There has been an argument over letting the Green Party into the federal debate. In Canada with our plurality of parties, allowing the Green Party to participate makes a lot of sense. Last election the Greens were not even added to the CBC website as one of the federal parties. I can understand not allowing every party in existence into the federal debates with 16 political parties currently registered ranging from the Animal Alliance Environment Voters Party of Canada, to the Marijuana Party, to the Western Block Party, to the Neo Rhinos who actually state they don't have a platform they have a happyform it would be slightly absurd to include all parties. The Greens however, have become a viable party.

The Greens unlike the many interesting other parties do compete and organize on a national stage like the Conservatives, Liberals and, NDP. The Greens put viable candidates in pretty much all ridings across the country and in certain ridings are even more organized then some of the other parties. Last election they brought in 6.6% of the popular vote and are currently polling closer to 9% on a national scale. However, due to our first-past-the post system it is difficult to have enough regional concentration to win proportional seats.

The Greens now have their first MP Blair Wilson-West Vancouver. Wilson was formerly a Liberal but left the party and became an independent just recently joining the Green Party. Some see this issue with contention however, the switching of parties has become more frequent within Canadian Politics.

With candidates across the country, their first MP, an established and recognized leader and, a viable National party platform the Greens should be participating in the debates. They are being barred from participating most likely due to the work of the Conservatives and NDP. The Conservatives cite that they shouldn't be allowed because, of a promise of by the Greens and Liberals to not run candidates in their leaders' ridings, something that has actually happened before in Canadian Politics. The NDP essentially have cited the same incident but it is more likely due to a worry of lost votes of left-leaning voters who would "go Green" so to speak. It is even reported that the Stephen Harper and Jack Layton told stations they would refuse to participate in debates if Elizabeth May was included. To me any party that viable should be included. The Bloc despite not running outside Quebec is included and the Progressive Conservatives when they lost all but two seats were included. What are you really scared of about including the Greens.

Elizabeth May talking about the Election Debates: